Weekly PGA Tour Tips

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Dustin Johnson – 18/1 – 3pts each-way

Collin Morikawa – 30/1 – 2pts each-way

Tyrrell Hatton – 40/1 – 1.25pts each-way

Louis Oosthuizen – 66/1 – 1 pt each-way

Sergio Garcia – 66/1 – 1 pt each-way

Henrik Stenson – 80/1 – 1 pt each-way

Jim Furyk – 200/1 – 0.5pts each-way

Well, it has finally arrived. The first major of the year, the 102nd PGA Championship, takes place at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco. It will be the first major with no fans but the expectation in advance of the event is massive. The course will be challenging with narrow fairways and some cooler, overcast weather compared to what Tour players have recently been experiencing. There are many plot lines and talking points that will play out at Harding Park. Can Tiger win his 16th Major? Will JT go back-to-back and show why he’s World No 1? Will Jon Rahm win and take it back off him? Can Bryson show his extra bulk was put on for a reason? There are also the storylines around Rory’s chances of his first major in six years. Can Shane Lowry win a second major after an impressive showing last week at the WGC? Will Jordan Spieth complete the career Grand Slam? It promises to be a fascinating event with Brooks Koepka and JT sharing the favourite’s tag at prices as low as 9/1. Rahmbo, Rory and Bryson follow them in the market, but the top of the market is not the only place to look for winner. Maybe there will another Cinderella-type victory like John Daly in 1991 or Shaun Micheel in 2003. There might be an Asian victory to go with YE Yang’s in 2009. A lot of bookmakers are going with 10 places this week, so having a small put might add to the fun of the week. As per usual, the focus on this week’s selection is on value balanced with recent form and any course form available. 

The headline selection this week is a recent winner on the PGA Tour at the Travelers and a former major winner. Dustin Johnson has seventeen major top-10’s in just over a decade and was runner-up at the PGA last year. Any recent form issues can be seen as blips as he was tied-12th last week. He plays great in California and has previous victories at iconic California venues like Pebble Beach and Riviera. These two courses have similarities with TPC Harding Park and Dustin should feel at home here and go all the way on Sunday.

Collin Morikawa was almost the main selection this week, but his lack of major experience placed him as second selection. He went to college up the road at Stanford, so will know this course very well. His iron play will be a major strength this week on a course with some long par-3’s and par-4’s stretching over 500 yards. His youth is not an issue as he clearly knows how to win when he stared JT down at the Workday. Of the current crop of young stars coming on to the tour, he looks the most likely to win a major first.

Tyrrell Hatton is man on upward trend that looks to heading to a debut major championship. His current form is very strong. He backed up his maiden PGA Tour at the Arnold Palmer with a close third-place at the RBC Heritage. His best major finishes have all happened at the PGA with two top-10’s. He will relish these cooler conditions and his consistent, accurate long game will set up birdie chances for him. Expect big things from Hatton if he can keeps his temper under control.

Louis Oosthuizen’s recent resurgence was stamped with an impressive tied-6th at the WGC last week. Allied with his good form recently, he also was a quarter-finalist at the WGC Matchplay at Harding Park in 2015. He is a major winner and has runner-ups in all the majors. He is also an attractive price, so ticks all the boxes.

Similarly, Sergio Garcia is a player that looks set to go well at a fair price. He was a 

top-10 at the WGC Amex Championship at Harding Park in 2005. He is a former Masters champion who has shown solid form since the break for the pandemic which includes a top-5 at RBC Heritage. A contending performance looks likely this week.

Another former major winner who is at a nice price is Henrik Stenson. He hasn’t played much golf since the pandemic, but got a good run last week. He was a top-10 finisher a the WGC here in 2005, so the course form factor is solid. His long-iron play will be a big advantage.

Our long-shot is also a former major winner and recent winner. Jim Furyk won last week on his debut on the Champions Tour. While he may be 50 years old, his game is as rock solid as ever. He is relatively off the tee but he will be hitting these narrow fairways a lot more often than most. He played well at the WGC here in 2005 and was a semi-finalist at the Matchplay in 2015. He has strong recent form, course pedigree and lovely odds.